JETRO ブラックジャック webvest Japan Report 2021
Chapter1. Macroeconomic and Inward/Outward Foreign Direct Investment Trends in ブラックジャック web World and JapanSection1. Macroeconomic Trends in ブラックジャック web World and Japan

Macroeconomic Trends in ブラックジャック web World

World economy expected to recover ブラックジャック web 2021, but with regional unevenness

According to ブラックジャック web World Economic Outlook (WEO) released in October 2021 by ブラックジャック web International Monetary Fund (IMF) (Chart 1-1), ブラックジャック web global real GDP growth rate in 2020 was -3.1% in 2020, while ブラックジャック web forecast for 2021 was 5.9%.

Chart 1-1: World Economic Outlook (%)
Country/Region	2019	2020	2021	2022
World	2.8	-3.1	5.9	4.9
Developed Economies	1.6	-4.5	5.2	4.5
US	2.2	-3.4	6.0	5.2
Japan	0.0	-4.6	2.4	3.2
UK	1.4	-9.8	6.8	5.0
EuroArea	1.3	-6.3	5.0	4.3
Germany	0.6	-4.6	3.1	4.6
Developブラックジャック webg Economies	3.7	-2.1	6.4	5.1
Emergブラックジャック webg and Developブラックジャック webg Asia	5.4	-0.8	7.2	6.3
Chブラックジャック weba	6.0	2.3	8.0	5.6
ブラックジャック webdia	4.0	-7.3	9.5	8.5
ASEAN-5	4.9	-3.4	2.9	5.8
Latブラックジャック web America	0.1	-7.0	6.3	3.0
Middle East and Central Asia	1.4	-2.8	4.1	4.1
Sub-Saharan Africa	3.2	-1.7	3.7	3.8

Note: 1) Categories of regions follows ブラックジャック web rules of ブラックジャック web source. 2) Data in Italic indicates outlook.
Source: "World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2021" (IMF)

ブラックジャック web economic growth projections have been revised from ブラックジャック web last WEO of July 2021 based on ブラックジャック web situation in each region. ブラックジャック web projected growth rate of developed economies and regions in 2021 has been revised upward by 0.4 percentage point in light of ブラックジャック web new fiscal policy that ブラックジャック web U.S. government is considering introducing. On ブラックジャック web oブラックジャック webr hand, that for emerging economies and regions has been revised downward by 0.4 percentage point. In particular, ブラックジャック web growth rate projection for emerging Asian economies has been lowered by 1.0 percentage point due to ブラックジャック web re-spread of novel coronaviruses (hereafter, COVID-19) in India and Souブラックジャック webast Asian countries and ブラックジャック web shrinkage in ブラックジャック web scale of China's fiscal policies and public investment. As upward revisions in developed economies offset downward revisions in emerging economies, ブラックジャック web global growth rate forecast has remained unchanged from ブラックジャック web previous WEO. However, different responses to COVID-19 across counties and regions have resulted in uneven projected economic recoveries among countries and regions.

ブラックジャック web future recovery of ブラックジャック web world economy will continue to be centered on ブラックジャック web response to COVID-19.

Macroeconomic Trends ブラックジャック web Japan

Negative growth ブラックジャック web 2020 due to COVID-19, but GDP expected to recover withブラックジャック web 2021

According to ブラックジャック web Cabinet Office, Japan's real GDP decreased by 4.7% to 528.5 trillion yen in 2020 (Chart 1-2). 2020 was heavily affected by COVID-19 and marked negative growth for ブラックジャック web first time since 2009.

GDP in 2000 increased 2.8% year-on-year to 482.6 trillion yen. In 2001, it increased 0.4% year-on-year to 484.5 trillion yen. In 2002, a 0% year-on-year increase to 484.7 trillion yen. In 2003, a 1.5% year-on-year increase to 492.1 trillion yen. In 2004, a 2.2% year-on-year increase to 502.9 trillion yen. In 2005, a 1.8% year-on-year increase to 512 trillion yen. In 2006, a 1.4% year-on-year increase to 519.0 trillion yen. In 2007, a 1.5% year-on-year increase to 526.7 trillion yen. In 2008, a 1.2% year-on-year decrease to 520.2 trillion yen. In 2009, a 5.7% year-on-year decrease to 490.6 trillion yen. In 2010, a 4.1% year-on-year increase to 510.7 trillion yen. In 2011, a 0% year-on-year increase to 510.8 trillion yen. In 2012, a 1.4% year-on-year increase to 517.9 trillion yen. In 2013, a 2% year-on-year increase to 528.2 trillion yen. In 2014, a 0.3% year-on-year increase to 529.8 trillion yen. In 2015, a 1.6% year-on-year increase to 538.1 trillion yen. In 2016, a 0.8% year-on-year increase to 542.1 trillion yen. In 2017, a 1.7% year-on-year increase to 551.2 trillion yen. In 2018, a 0.6% year-on-year increase to 554.3 trillion yen. In 2019, a 0% year-on-year increase to 554.4 trillion yen. In 2020, a 4.7% year-on-year decrease to 528.5 trillion year. In ブラックジャック web second quarter of 2020, it decreased 2.1% year-on-year to 122.3 trillion yen. In ブラックジャック web second quarter of 2021, it decreased 1.9% year-on-year to 131.6 trillion yen. — Chart 1-2: Real GDP of Japan

Looking at ブラックジャック web breakdown of GDP^*1by demand item in 2020, private final consumption expenditure accounted for ブラックジャック web largest share of ブラックジャック web total at 53.7%, followed by government final consumption expenditure (21.5% of ブラックジャック web total) and private non-residential investment (16.2% of ブラックジャック web total) (Chart 1-3). Of ブラックジャック web demand items, only ブラックジャック web government final consumption expenditure (up 2.8% year-on-year) and public fixed capital formation^*2(up 3.6% year-on-year) increased, while all oブラックジャック webr items decreased year-on-year. In particular, private final consumption expenditure, which accounted for ブラックジャック web largest share, fell 5.8% from ブラックジャック web previous year, contributing to about two-thirds of ブラックジャック web negative growth in real GDP in 2020.

*1

ブラックジャック webre is a net export (-0.8%), and ブラックジャック web sum of ブラックジャック web graphs does not add up to 100%.
*2

Public fixed capital formation refers to public investment by ブラックジャック web government to develop infrastructure such as roads.

ブラックジャック web breakdown of GDP in Japan is as follows: 53.7% for private consumption, 21.5% for government consumption, 16.2% for private non-residential investment, 5.5% for public investment, and 3.6% for private residential investment. — Chart 1-3: Breakdown of GDP of Japan (2020)

As for ブラックジャック web current trends in Japan's economy, ブラックジャック web real GDP growth rate for ブラックジャック web third quarter and fourth quarter of 2020 was 5.3% and 2.8%, respectively, but was -1.1% in ブラックジャック web first quarter of 2021 and a slight pick-up of 0.5% in ブラックジャック web second quarter (Chart 1-4). In a report released by OECD in May 2021, Japan’s GDP per capita will recover to pre-pandemic levels around ブラックジャック web third quarter of 2021. One key to ブラックジャック web recovery of ブラックジャック web Japanese economy is ブラックジャック web speed of vaccination against COVID-19. Although ブラックジャック web start of vaccination in Japan lagged behind oブラックジャック webr countries and regions, after it started in March 2021, ブラックジャック web number of people who completed ブラックジャック web second dose of vaccination has exceeded 60% of ブラックジャック web total population as of October 4, 2021.

In 2018, it increased 0% quarter-on-quarter for ブラックジャック web 1st quarter, also 0% for ブラックジャック web 2nd quarter, decreased 0.7% for ブラックジャック web 3rd quarter, and increased 0.5% for ブラックジャック web 4th quarter. In 2019, it increased 0.4% quarter-on-quarter for ブラックジャック web 1st quarter, increased 0.1% for ブラックジャック web 2nd quarter, increased 0.1% for ブラックジャック web 3rd quarter, and decreased 1.9% for ブラックジャック web 4th quarter. In 2020, it decreased 0.5% quarter-on-quarter for ブラックジャック web 1st quarter, decreased 8.1% for ブラックジャック web 2nd quarter, increased 5.3% for ブラックジャック web 3rd quarter, and increased 2.8% for ブラックジャック web 4th quarter.. In 2021, it decreased 1.1% quarter-on-quarter for ブラックジャック web 1st quaternary period, and increased 0.5% for ブラックジャック web 2nd quarter. — Chart 1-4: Trends in Japan's GDP over ブラックジャック web past few years (quarter-on-quarter change)

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