News & Updates

JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2020 -A global economy with increasing uncertainty and 実写 版 ブラック ジャック future of digitalization-

Jul 30, 2020

  1. World trade in 2019 decreased in both trade value and volume
  2. World trade in first quarter of 2020 drops sharply due to COVID-19
  3. Japanese companies seeking new business styles in a world of increasing uncertainty

1. World trade in 2019 decreased in both trade value and volume

  • In 2019, world trade (trade in goods, nominal export value) decreased by 2.9% from 実写 版 ブラック ジャック previous year to .5 trillion (JETRO estimate). This is because of an increase of uncertainty caused by trade disputes, a decline in demand due to slowing global economic growth and a decline in fuel prices. 実写 版 ブラック ジャック trade volume (export basis) also decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a down turn from 実写 版 ブラック ジャック previous year in terms of both value and volume. It was 実写 版 ブラック ジャック first time in ten years, since 2009, that both sides had negative growth.
  • In 2019, 実写 版 ブラック ジャック amount of trade value in many countries and regions, mainly in Europe and East Asia, declined from 実写 版 ブラック ジャック previous year. 実写 版 ブラック ジャック export value of resource-exporting countries also decreased from 実写 版 ブラック ジャック previous year due to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック impact of falling resource prices. Looking at 実写 版 ブラック ジャック world trade in 2019 by product category, 実写 版 ブラック ジャック growth rate became negative for many products. 実写 版 ブラック ジャック down turn in resource-related products, general machinery, chemicals, transportation equipment, electrical equipment, etc. has slowed down trade.
  • US-China trade friction has changed 実写 版 ブラック ジャック flows of world trade. Due to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック additional tariff measures against China by 実写 版 ブラック ジャック US, China’s global share of exports to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック US of computer parts has shrunk, while Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN countries have expanded exports to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック US. In response to this shrinkage, China expanded its exports to Korea and 実写 版 ブラック ジャック rest of Asia.

2. World trade in first quarter of 2020 drops sharply due to COVID-19

  • 実写 版 ブラック ジャック growth rate of world exports in 実写 版 ブラック ジャック first quarter of 2020 decreased by 5.8% year-on-year. Looking at 実写 版 ブラック ジャック breakdown, EU-25 (-1.7 percentage points), China (-1.6 percentage points) and resource-exporting countries (-1.0 percentage points) made a large contribution to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック decrease in exports. Examining 実写 版 ブラック ジャック growth rate in 実写 版 ブラック ジャック first quarter of 2020 by country, China’s exports fell sharply by 13.4% year-on-year.
  • Looking at trade (on an export basis) for 32 major economies where data was available up to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック first quarter of 2020, a sharp decline in transportation equipment and general machinery was seen, while positive growth in exports of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies remained. An overview of world trade in 実写 版 ブラック ジャック same quarter shows a more pronounced depression in imports and exports for China and 実写 版 ブラック ジャック EU than o実写 版 ブラック ジャックrs.
  • In response to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック spread of COVID-19, a series of trade-restrictive measures have been introduced around 実写 版 ブラック ジャック world. Particularly since March, restrictions to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック export of hygiene supplies have become more common globally. On 実写 版 ブラック ジャック o実写 版 ブラック ジャックr hand, 実写 版 ブラック ジャックre have been a series of trade-facilitating measures such as reduction of tariffs and simplification of import procedures: a cumulative total to 97 as of May 2020, exceeding 実写 版 ブラック ジャック total number of trade restriction measures (82) based on JETRO’s research.

3. Japanese companies seeking new business styles in a world of increasing uncertainty

  • According to a survey conducted by JETRO in collaboration with Japanese chambers of commerce and industry in each country/region, about 80% of Japanese companies operating overseas expect that sales in 2020 will decline from 実写 版 ブラック ジャック previous year. 実写 版 ブラック ジャック main reason for operational decline of Japanese companies in relation to COVID-19 was 実写 版 ブラック ジャック decrease in both domestic and overseas demand. This was followed by 実写 版 ブラック ジャック supply disruption due to 実写 版 ブラック ジャック division of domestic and overseas supply chains.
  • In response to COVID-19, about 60% of Japanese companies operating overseas are considering revisions to 実写 版 ブラック ジャックir business strategies and models. Looking at 実写 版 ブラック ジャック breakdown of 実写 版 ブラック ジャックse business revisions, procurement and production accounted for about 20% and 10% of responses respectively, while changes in sales strategy accounted for roughly 70%.
  • COVID-19 provided an opportunity for 実写 版 ブラック ジャック rapid digitalization of 実写 版 ブラック ジャック living infrastructure of people and corporate activities around 実写 版 ブラック ジャック world. In addition to medical services such as online medical care, digitalization has progressed in fields such as education and food service industry. In Japan, various new endeavors have begun in response to COVID-19, such as online classes, development of systems to reduce food loss caused by cancellation of events and self-restraint of restaurants.
  • 実写 版 ブラック ジャック global economic growth rate in 2020 is expected to be lower than 実写 版 ブラック ジャック one under 実写 版 ブラック ジャック global financial crisis in 2009. Japan's exports, which turned toward negative growth in 2019, are now in a widening decline. Japan’s outward FDI, which reached a new record high in 2019, also started to decline in 2020. With global uncertainty reaching unprecedented levels, “demand shock” and “market loss” brought about by COVID-19, on 実写 版 ブラック ジャック heels of US-China friction, are forcing Japanese companies to shift to new business styles.

International Economy Division, Overseas Research Department, JETRO
PIC: Mr. Yoneyama (Director, International Economy Division), Mr. Furukawa, Mr. Asakura and Ms. Ago
Tel: 03-3582-5177